Bitcoin Technical Analysis

Bitcoin’s recent price action raises the question of whether we are witnessing a bull trap before further downside continuation. Over the past few days, price has been consolidating under local range resistance and has now closed a weak candle above the range high, tapping into resting liquidity. If Bitcoin falls back within the local range, the probability of a rotation toward the range low increases.

Key Points:

• Weak Break Above Resistance: Bitcoin has briefly closed above the local range high but with weak price action, suggesting a possible liquidity grab.

• Confluent Resistance Zone: The 0.618 Fibonacci level and VWAP resistance (from the $96,400 region) form a key trading zone where price may reject.

• Short Setup Possibility: If price breaks back below the range high and accelerates downward, it could confirm a failed auction, leading to a sell-off toward lower liquidity levels.

• Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin holds above the range high with multiple candle closes and increasing volume, this would indicate strength and invalidate the bearish setup.

Bitcoin remains within a rotational range, making both long and short trades viable at key levels. However, the current region is acting as resistance, making a short trade the higher-probability setup—if confirmation is given. Until then, traders should remain cautious and wait for clear price action signals.

As we move forward, it is crucial to monitor how price reacts around this resistance zone. A decisive rejection will likely trigger further selling pressure, leading to a retest of lower support levels. On the other hand, if Bitcoin stabilizes above the range high, it could attract new buyers and shift momentum in favor of the bulls. This makes patience and reactive trading essential in the current environment, as premature entries could lead to unnecessary risk exposure.

Hope this analysis helps.

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