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Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Weekend Pump| Is this sustainable?

The key test will come during the week as trading volume and price structure develop further. If Bitcoin holds above key resistance levels and builds upon its weekend gains, it could signal a trend continuation toward higher targets.

Today’s report will include:

  • BITCOIN Technical Analysis

  • Market Psychology

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Bitcoin High Time-frame Analysis 

Bitcoin has seen a strong price pump following the announcement of a crypto strategic reserve, which included Bitcoin alongside a few unexpected altcoins. While this move has been impulsive, it is important to assess whether it can be sustained with increasing volume. Notably, this rally has occurred over the weekend, which raises concerns about its reliability due to the likelihood of a CME futures gap forming.

Points to Consider

  • Key Resistance Levels in Play: On the intraday timeframe, price is currently testing VWAP and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, which aligns with internal weekly resistance. This is a potential local top zone where a reversal could occur. However, if this resistance breaks, it increases the probability of further upside toward the $99,450 region.

  • Weekend Price Action & CME Gaps: Historically, strong weekend moves often lead to gaps in the CME futures market, which tend to get filled. If Bitcoin was truly bullish, this move would have likely occurred during the week, raising doubts about its sustainability.

  • Market Sentiment & Follow-Through: While this move aligns with an oversold bounce, the news-driven nature of the pump has exaggerated its impact. Given the illiquid order books, further follow-through during the week is necessary to confirm whether this rally signals continuation or another fade.

Bitcoin’s impulsive weekend rally is notable, but whether it can sustain momentum remains uncertain. While an oversold bounce was expected, the news catalyst has amplified the move, creating a highly emotional market state. As of now, the market remains at a key inflection point, where failure to hold the current range could trigger a reversal back toward lower levels, while a confirmed breakout would validate further upside.

The key test will come during the week as trading volume and price structure develop further. If Bitcoin holds above key resistance levels and builds upon its weekend gains, it could signal a trend continuation toward higher targets. However, if price action weakens and a reversal occurs, the CME futures gap fill scenario and further downside could become the dominant narrative..

Hope this analysis helps.

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